What went wrong? There is an answer, but you’re probably not going to like it. We need to change the whole system to ensure we are not crushed by a system that seeks relentless productivity, endless activity, and soul-sucking workloads.
Maybe the 15-hour work week is an idealistic fantasy. Or maybe it’s a motivating goal to drive a change in our current world of work?
TRANSCRIPT
Forget the four-day work week, what about a 15-hour work week? Wouldn’t that be great? 2030, here we come. Well, at least that’s what the famed economist, John Maynard Keynes, predicted nearly 100 years ago. In 1930, he had done some calculations, or at least predictions, saying that by the year 2030, we would only need to work 15 hours a week in order to earn enough money, in order to live a really comfortable life. If only, right?
Back in 1930, things had been changing very rapidly in the workplace. A few years earlier, the Ford Motor Company had become the first major global company to shift to a five-day work week. Up until that point, almost all major companies had a six-day 10-hour-a-day work week.
And it was Henry Ford, who, under pressure from smaller companies and a few unions, had begun to investigate what actually the most optimum performance would be in his factories. And he had a look at working 24-hour shifts and 6-hour shifts and 8 and 10 and 12-hour shifts and seven days a week and all sorts. There was a lot of science involved and eventually came down to eight hours a day, five days a week, as being the most optimal.
Optimal in that people didn’t get too tired, they didn’t make mistakes, they didn’t get injured, the quality was the best. And well, you recognise that formula, right? We’re still using it today, even in our offices and with people who work on computers, not in factories. But on the basis of seeing the bump in productivity that Ford Motor Company got, John Maynard Keynes extrapolated that into the future, saying that new technologies and new smart approaches to management would allow us to get more and more productive and therefore earn more and more on a per hour basis and therefore need to work fewer and fewer hours.
That’s only one side of the equation. The other side of the equation, and John Maynard Keynes should have known this, is capitalism. Capitalism wanting to squeeze more juice out of us and give more shareholder wealth and dividends to shareholders and bigger bonuses to your boss and a bigger payout to CEOs. John Maynard Keynes knew that that was going to happen, but didn’t quite factor that side of the equation in.
So, who knows? It might be possible if we didn’t pay our CEOs and execs incredibly inflated numbers, if we didn’t feel the need to maximise shareholder revenue beyond just a reasonable return for their investment, maybe we would be able to give more wages to people, allowing people to work fewer hours, live better lives, and live that middle-class dream that the upper class, John Maynard Keynes, had in mind.
So no, sorry. This ThrowForward Thursday, I’m not making a prediction because I think until we overturn our current mindset, changing the entire system’s view, I don’t think we’re going to get 15-hour work weeks. But I do think that those companies that realise that we are probably nearing the end of the squeeze of asking people to work longer hours, blurring the lines between work in the office, work at home in the office and commuting, giving people technologies, which means they’re always in touch. You never have free time, even on the commute in your car. We don’t take holidays anymore where we disconnect and are not available. And we’re going to reach the limit of what we can squeeze out of ourselves and our employees.
Something’s going to have to change, maybe, like Henry Ford, who wasn’t a nice guy, but who did the calculations, realised that not only would he get more out of his workers by asking them to work fewer hours, he would also be able to attract and retain a lot more workers by doing it. In other words, it was smart to give our people more space, more time, a little bit more time off.
Maybe by 2030, some of the smarter, better companies will have worked that one out for the modern age. Maybe it’s not 15 hours a week, but we can’t keep doing what we’re currently doing. That’s my prediction.
As always, thank you for joining me on the ThrowForward Thursday Studio. I’ll see you next week in the future again.
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Graeme Codrington, is an internationally recognised futurist, specialising in the future of work. He helps organisations understand the forces that will shape our lives in the next ten years, and how we can respond in order to confidently stay ahead of change. Chat to us about booking Graeme to help you Re-Imagine and upgrade your thinking to identify the emerging opportunities in your industry.
For the past two decades, Graeme has worked with some of the world’s most recognised brands, travelling to over 80 countries in total, and speaking to around 100,000 people every year. He is the author of 5 best-selling books, and on faculty at 5 top global business schools.