Imagine what the world would look like if we all had the data about our genetic makeup, and we could see the many multiple ways our genetics shape who we are and what we are capable of. Imagine that gender wasn’t the issue it is today as we think of the classifications of sports codes – no longer would be it “male” and “female” as the only two categories, but rather many different categories based on whatever genetic characteristics were most applicable. And then imagine, we could also apply genetic enhancements to these sporting codes?
We can only imagine now. But this is our future reality.
TRANSCRIPT
Imagine what the world would look like if the debate about gender and genetics was not about the divide between men and women, but just how superhuman anyone could be.
Welcome to ThrowForward Thursday, my name is Graeme Codrington, and this is where we jump in the future, see what’s going on there, and decide if it has any implications for us today. And today, I want to think about genetic enhancements as it relates to a real debate that we’re having in the world at the moment, the debate around the genetic makeup of people.
The debate really is around the genetics of gender, and I suppose it’s in sport that we are seeing the debate have its biggest implications as we try and work out who qualifies to fit into the two big boxes, we’ve got at the moment called men and women. Although we know that gender is more of a spectrum and it’s a very complicated… well, it’s not two boxes, is it? That’s not that complicated at all, but it is complicated if you’ve only got two categories.
What happens if the debate in the future is not about the divide between men and women, but rather about the divide between various genetic capabilities? It’s not too It’s difficult to picture this because this is precisely how the Paralympics already works.
We have a number of different categories depending on the severity of the level of impairment that somebody has got. If you’re missing one arm, it’s different than if you’ve got a disability with both arms or one leg or both legs or sight or whatever. And we understand that multiple categories are required in order to do what sport’s needs, which is to have fair competition between people who are roughly similar and secondly, that it is a good spectacle, that it is something worth watching.
So for example, in contact sports like judo, karate, boxing, or whatever, we have a hang of a lot of categories down to two or three kilogrammes difference in size so that we are fair. You don’t just want the biggest people to win every round or every competition, you want to make it fair between people who are reasonably matched and also a reasonable spectacle. Yes, we’d probably watch a really big guy beat up a small guy once or twice, and then it would lose the competition element that we really enjoy in sports.
Now, of course, some sports build that in. So, rugby or it’s cousin American football has created a sport in which there is space for the big, heavy people who provide the bulk and the weight and the strength, and then also some of the lighter people who provide speed and agility. And you can design sports that have a team of people with multiple genetic characteristics. But other sports, like basketball or volleyball, certainly favour those people who have, in those instances, a height advantage.
So, for example, you could change the sport to say, well why wouldn’t we have a basketball league of people who are 2 metres and shorter than that. Think about it, if the maximum height allowed was 6 foot or 2 metres or whatever it might be, I’d watch that league because it would be fair, you’d see a good competition, and it would be a great spectacle. In fact, shorter people are probably more athletic and faster. I’m not saying that some of the great basketball players are not athletic, but you would be even more athletic if you were shorter and look at some of the gymnasts. And so, it would be a different spectacle, and it might even feel like a slightly different sport. But there would be no real reason why it would be an inferior product simply because you took the height advantage out of it.
Now, think about it. I think I’m making a stronger point than you might initially believe. But here’s the point of today’s ThrowForward Thursday. Sometime in the future, we are going to be able to identify which specific genetic characteristics are important for different sports.
So, is it VO2 max? And that might be for some of the cardio-heavy sports, it is strength and then it comes down to muscle fibre and bone density in other ones. In long distance running, it might be those twitch muscles, well, that would be in sprinting. And so we would have different genetic characteristics, and then we would create different classes of those, and we might even, at that point, open up our games for genetic enhancement. And those people who have enhanced their genetics, whether they’ve done that artificially as adults or whether the enhancement came from their culture or their parents making decisions even before they were born.
Genetic enhancements are coming. Genetic enhancements already exist. Most people who make it to the Olympics already have a genetic advantage over ordinary people. So, we’re not making a suggestion here that doesn’t already exist. We’re just bringing a little bit of future data science to deciding exactly where the boundaries are between different characterizations and classifications of different people.
And gender will probably be the least important differentiator. Genetic enhancements. It’s going to change the sports of the future. It’s going to change our view of what it means to be a human in the future.
As always, thank you for joining me in the ThrowForward Thursday studio. If our team at TomorrowToday can help you in any way, imagine what the future might look like and think about the implications for our world, be in touch and stay connected.
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Graeme Codrington, is an internationally recognised futurist, specialising in the future of work. He helps organisations understand the forces that will shape our lives in the next ten years, and how we can respond in order to confidently stay ahead of change. Chat to us about booking Graeme to help you Re-Imagine and upgrade your thinking to identify the emerging opportunities in your industry.
For the past two decades, Graeme has worked with some of the world’s most recognised brands, travelling to over 80 countries in total, and speaking to around 100,000 people every year. He is the author of 5 best-selling books, and on faculty at 5 top global business schools.